NISA(少額投資非課税制度)制度の変更に伴い、注目される要素は非課税保有枠の拡大や無制限化だが、NISAは投資の一形態であり、資産を増やすための効率的手段である。投資を通じて資産の増加を理解することが重要である。NISAを活用する際の利回りや将来評価額の計算方法について詳細を解説。長期分散投資を通じて運用することで利回りを向上させるポイントや過去のデータに基づいたリターンの想定方法についても紹介。将来の資産運用に関するシミュレーションも重要であり、適切なポートフォリオ構築がポイント。リスク管理も重要で、個別のアドバイスや資産運用シミュレーションを行うことが効果的。
When it comes to changes in the NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) system, many people tend to focus on the expansion of the tax-free holding limit and the unlimited tax-free period. However, NISA is also one of the investment systems. The purpose of using NISA is to efficiently increase assets by combining investments to form wealth.
It is important to understand how assets increase through investments. Therefore, in this article, we will take a detailed look at the “Yield” and “Calculation Method for Future Appraised Value” when using NISA for long-term diversified investments.
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Table of Contents
What is the yield of NISA?
NISA yield simulation
Points to improve the yield (return) of NISA
Generalization
What is the yield of NISA?
Investing in NISA involves risks (range and uncertainty), so it does not guarantee returns in advance. In short-term investments, it is difficult to control risks, and there is a possibility of capital loss depending on the situation. However, in long-term diversified investments, it is possible to predict the average return to some extent based on past data.
So, how much return should you expect? This time, we will explain asset management based on a long-term diversified investment portfolio.
The pension insurance premiums we pay as citizens (national pension and employee pension) are invested in long-term diversified investments to prepare for future pension payments. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is responsible for operation and management, as shown in Figure 1. Its investment portfolio consists of four assets: “Domestic Stocks,” “Domestic Bonds,” “Foreign Stocks,” and “Foreign Bonds.” distributed evenly.
Figure 1 GPIF Investment Portfolio
Data from HP
Assuming that the assets are managed in the same way as this portfolio, as shown in Figure 2, when the assets are held for more than 20 years, a return of about 5% is obtained over the entire holding period.
Figure 2 Yield by holding period from 1985 to 2022 (38 years to 1 year)
Therefore, based on past performance data, the return on the portfolio can be assumed to be about 5%.
Not all potential returns are 5%. Some people want to hold a lot of stocks, while others want to hold a lot of bonds. The way assets are held varies from person to person. While the GPIF divides assets equally into four categories, by dividing foreign stocks and bonds into advanced countries and emerging countries, including REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust Funds), you can increase the expected return rate. Change the holding ratio.
Start by creating a portfolio that suits you.
NISA Yield Simulation
When preparing money, it is important to simulate how much money you can earn through investments. Here, we will answer the question “how much should I prepare?” using specific simulation methods.
If you are using a one-time fund
If you are buying all at once and managing it, you can calculate it using the following formula:
Future Appraised Value = Principal × (1 + Yield) t
※t is the number of years of investment
For example, using the growth investment limit of NISA and a 5% yield portfolio, if a person wants to prepare 5 million yen in 20 years, they can purchase 2.4 million yen in one lump sum and invest it to the full annual investment limit for 20 years.
Future Appraised Value = 2.4 million yen × (1 + 0.05) ^ 20 = about 6.3 million yen
Therefore, it is possible to prepare more than 5 million yen.
If you run while accumulating
When you save and invest at the same time, the calculation formula becomes more complicated, so it is best to use a calculation site that can simulate asset management. There is a page on the Financial Services Agency website called “Asset Management Simulation” as well.
Figure 3 shows the simulation results of investing 15,000 yen per month for 20 years using a portfolio with an average yield of 5%.
Asset management simulation
In this way, even if you don’t have much money now, you can prepare more than 5 million yen by investing 15,000 yen per month.
Points to Improve the Yield (Return) of NISA
The yield (return) of NISA varies depending on the distribution ratio of the portfolio.
To achieve high returns, it is necessary to increase the proportion of high-yield assets in the portfolio and decrease the proportion of low-yield assets. The four assets shown in Figure 4 increase the proportion of high-return “advanced country stocks” and “Japanese stocks” and decrease the proportion of low-return “advanced country bonds” and “Japanese bonds”.
However, returns and risks are two sides of the same coin, and the higher the return, the higher the risk. When pursuing returns recklessly, be sure to remember that there is a high possibility of capital loss due to a sharp decline in prices.
When creating the aforementioned “Fit Portfolio,” the key point is whether you can withstand the maximum drawdown of the position.
Generalization
While utilizing NISA for return management through long-term diversification is effective due to the benefits of compound interest and tax exemption, investments come with risks, so remember that it may be better not to do them. If you are unsure how to build an investment portfolio that suits you, consult with an impartial independent financial planner.
Asset management and investment advice are commonly provided at bank branches and other financial institutions today. At the same time, various individuals are spreading their investment skills through YouTube and SNS on the internet. However, it is essential to question whether this advice is truly right for you in a world where various financial products exist.
In a world where a variety of financial products exist, having someone to support and protect you is essential.
●Collaboration: Miki Fujiwara
Representative Director of SMILELIFE Project, First-Class Financial Planner. SMILELIFE Project was established in September 2017. It started the individual comprehensive life planning service “LIFEBOOK®” in anticipation of the arrival of the 100-year life society. The company established an independent franchise consulting system that does not sell financial or insurance products but collects only consulting fees, and created a new way of working for Japanese people by utilizing the most advanced FP technology and an advisor training program based on the American model in order to produce “lifestyles”.
Contact: 03-6403-5390 (SMILELIFE Project)